The U.S. egg market is now experiencing early signs of supply and demand stabilization after prolonged oversupply conditions, though experts cannot yet confirm when a full recovery might occur. Sherman Miller, president and CEO of Cal-Maine Foods, the country’s largest egg producer, highlighted these developments during the company’s September 30 earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. He noted that fewer hatched chicks and a reduced U.S. layer flock are beginning to alleviate the surplus.
Over the past three months, monthly egg production has also dipped slightly to 19.9 million cases, below earlier forecasts.
Miller acknowledged ongoing market instability, however. The oversupply stems from last year’s avian influenza outbreak, which decimated over 145 million birds and sent wholesale egg prices skyrocketing. Since then, prices have plummeted, causing Cal-Maine’s conventional shell egg sales to decline by 59.5% year over year, totaling $201.7 million in the latest quarter.
The industry’s broader challenges include high flock levels, strong hen productivity, and weak export demand, as reported by the American Egg Board. Miller countered that demand remains steady across retail, food service, and exports, with U.S. retail egg volume climbing 4% from January through August compared to the same period last year. While late-August sales were marginally higher, the average price per dozen has dropped by 27%, making eggs more affordable for consumers.
Consumers benefit from lower prices following last year’s shortages, yet producers continue to face financial strain. Should the rebalancing trend persist, it may lead to more stable prices without the extreme fluctuations observed in 2023. However, the exact timeline for stabilization remains uncertain.
Miller also addressed the impact of avian influenza on the industry’s long-term outlook. The outbreak forced producers to cull flocks rapidly, creating a supply gap that took months to address. While hatchery numbers have since declined, the recovery process is gradual, and demand fluctuations, particularly in food service and exports, could delay further progress. The company’s focus now shifts to maintaining production efficiency while monitoring consumer behavior ahead of the holiday season.
