The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held its key interest rate at 14% at its October 23 meeting, while raising its forecast for 2026 year-end inflation to a range of 7.1%–7.6%, according to the regulator’s latest statement. The decision to maintain the rate matched market expectations, with most economists anticipating no immediate easing cycle resumption.
The CBR had paused its monetary easing in September after cutting rates ten times in a row between June 2025 and July 2026. The latest move marks the first pause since April 2025, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation pressures. The bank attributed the slowdown in disinflation to temporary reductions in production capacity across key sectors, which have disrupted supply chains and logistics.
Inflation has shown signs of acceleration in recent months. Seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8% annualized in the third quarter of 2026, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter. Core inflation also rose to 6.2%, compared with 4.5% in the second quarter. As of October 19, annual inflation stood at 6.8%, and the CBR now expects it to end 2026 within the 7.1%–7.6% range—higher than its previous forecast of 6%–7%.
Regulated utility tariffs played a significant role in the latest inflation spike, pushing annual inflation above 7% in October. The CBR noted that while volatile components like fuel prices contributed to the rise, underlying price growth remained steady at 5%–6% annualized, a level that has not declined in recent months. The bank emphasized that sustained demand growth is needed to resume disinflation.
The CBR’s October statement acknowledged the government’s updated budget parameters as consistent with its baseline inflation scenario, but it left open the possibility of policy adjustments if fiscal plans change.
The next CBR rate-setting meeting is scheduled for December 18.
